基于Caprini血栓风险评估模型对妇科恶性肿瘤相关静脉血栓形成的风险预测
作者:
作者单位:

中南大学湘雅护理学院,湖南 长沙,410013

作者简介:

谭开宇,女,硕士研究生,研究方向:恶性肿瘤相关血栓的研究。

通讯作者:

刘丹,女,博士,副教授,研究方向:外科护理学,护理教育。

中图分类号:

R737.3

基金项目:

★护理学湖南省重点实验室(2017TP1004)


Risk prediction of venous thromboembolism associated with gynecological malignant tumors based on Caprini risk assessment model
Author:
Affiliation:

Xiangya School of Nursing, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan, 410013

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    摘要:

    目的 探究Caprini血栓风险评估模型以及新建立的模型对妇科恶性肿瘤相关静脉血栓(VTE)形成的风险预测价值。方法 选取2015年1月—2020年6月湖南省肿瘤医院妇科恶性肿瘤并发VTE的患者161例,依据1∶2的比例抽取同期322例妇科恶性肿瘤患者为对照组。收集两组患者的临床资料,分析影响妇科恶性肿瘤相关VTE发生的危险因素,构建新的Caprini血栓风险评估模型,绘制受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线,与原Caprini血栓风险评估模型进行比较。结果 对照组患者的Caprini评分低于VTE组(P<0.001)。两组患者年龄、肿瘤分期、高血压、高脂血症、糖尿病、输血史、绝经状态、化疗、血小板计数和D-2聚体水平比较,差异具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。多因素Logistic回归分析显示,合并高血压、高脂血症、糖尿病、有输血史、绝经、化疗、血小板计数≥300×109 L-1和D-2聚体≥0.55 μm·mL-1均为妇科恶性肿瘤患者发生VTE的独立危险因素(P<0.05)。与Caprini血栓风险评估模型相比较,新构建的Caprini血栓风险评估模型ROC曲线下面积增加0.112(P<0.001)。结论 Caprini血栓风险评估模型对于妇科恶性肿瘤相关VTE发生风险的预测价值处于中等水平,新构建的Caprini血栓风险预测模型提高了妇科恶性肿瘤患者VTE风险预测的准确性。

    Abstract:

    Objective To verify the risk prediction efficacies of the Caprini risk assessment model and the new prediction probability model established based on the Caprini risk assessment model for venous thromboembolism associated with gynecological malignant tumors.Methods A total of 161 patients with gynecological malignancies complicated by VTE in Hunan Cancer Hospital and hospitalized between January 2015 and June 2020 were included in this study (VTE group), and 322 patients with gynecological malignancies in the same period were selected as the control group according to the ratio of 1∶2. The clinical data of patients in the two groups were collected to analyze the risk factors for the occurrence of VTE of patients with gynecological malignancies. A new Caprini thrombosis risk assessment model was constructed, and the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was drawn to compare it with the original Caprini thrombosis risk assessment model.Results The Caprini score of the control group was lower than the VTE group (P<0.001). There were statistical differences in age, cancer stage, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, history of blood transfusion, menopausal status, chemotherapy, blood platelet count and D-dimer level between the two groups (P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, history of blood transfusion, menopause, chemotherapy, blood platelet ≥300×109 L-1 and D-dimer ≥0.55 μm·mL-1 were independent risk factors for VTE in patients with gynecological malignancies (P<0.05). Compared with the Caprini risk assessment model, the new prediction probability model increased the area under the ROC curve by 0.112 (P<0.001).Conclusion The Caprini risk assessment model has a moderate predictive value for the risk of VTE associated with gynecological malignant tumors. The newly constructed Caprini risk assessment model improved the accuracy of VTE risk prediction for patients with gynecological malignancies.

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谭开宇,刘丹,舒彤.基于Caprini血栓风险评估模型对妇科恶性肿瘤相关静脉血栓形成的风险预测[J].肿瘤药学,2022,(1):126-131 ( in Chinese)

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  • 收稿日期:2021-02-18
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-03-15
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